Tree risk management | Fact checking the context Any publication about tree risk management lacks credibility if it neglects the overall risk. That's because the overall risk from branches and trees falling and causing death, injury, or property damage provides the 'Context' (ISO 31000 - Risk Management). It gives us a base rate. This is the context of the overall risk in VALID's Tree Risk-Benefit Management Strategies, which can be downloaded here. https://lnkd.in/dJc7iCM "Compared to other everyday risks we readily accept, the overall risk to us from branches or trees falling is extremely low. Our annual risk of being killed or seriously injured is less than one in a million. That's so low, we're at greater risk from a 200 miles (320km) round trip drive to visit friends for a weekend than from branches or trees falling for a whole year. Given the number of trees we live with, and how many of us pass them daily, being killed or injured by a tree is a rare event; one that usually happens during severe weather." Why is establishing context and base rate so important? A risk expert nails it. #trees #arboriculture #urbanforestry #risk #riskassessment #riskmanagement
Acer Venturaโs Post
More Relevant Posts
-
๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ณ๐ถ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ผ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ We're playing around with a new definition of risk (image). It's inspired by CAPUR's, 'Improving Society's Management of Risks: A Statement of Principles.' https://lnkd.in/dhmUyTzN CAPUR's definition isโฆ "๐๐๐จ๐ ๐๐จ ๐๐ฃ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ค๐ช๐ฉ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฉ ๐ข๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฃ ๐๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐ช๐ฉ๐ช๐ง๐ (๐๐ค๐ค๐ ๐ค๐ง ๐๐๐)." I very much like the clarity that Risk can be good or bad in this definition. Mind you, I'm not sure what work '๐๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐ช๐ฉ๐ช๐ง๐' is doing, that's not already done by '๐ฌ๐๐๐ฉ ๐ข๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฃ'. ย It'd be a better definition as. ย "๐๐๐จ๐ ๐๐จ ๐๐ฃ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ค๐ช๐ฉ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฉ ๐ข๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฃ (๐๐ค๐ค๐ ๐ค๐ง ๐๐๐)." ย I think it's much clearer definition of the threat v opportunity core of risk that ISO 31000 tries to encapsulate with its cryptic... "๐๐๐จ๐ ๐๐จ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐ค๐ ๐ช๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐ฉ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐ฎ ๐ค๐ฃ ๐ค๐๐๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ." Both are leaps and bounds over the most commonly used definition of riskโฆ "๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐๐ค๐ค๐ ๐ค๐ ๐จ๐ค๐ข๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐." In VALID's risk model. An Acceptable risk is one that has more than ๐ญ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ด๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ๐ for every ๐ญ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ. #trees #urbanforestry #risk #riskmanagement #riskassessmentย
-
-
๐ฉ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฝ๐ ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ (๐จ๐/๐๐) ๐๐๐ป/๐๐๐น Are open for registration! https://lnkd.in/gguDvBTv Come along and find out why so many Organisations and Arborists are upgrading their approach to tree risk management and assessment with ๐ฉ๐๐๐๐. This is your ๐ผ๐ป๐น๐ ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐๐ป๐ถ๐๐ to upgrade your approach to tree risk with VALID in the UK this year. Because of training workshop commitments in North America in Sep, and Australia Nov. And a planned ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ tour with v2 of the Tree Risk App in Oct. We wonโt have the time to run a UK Validator Autumn tour this year, so we've made the geographical range of venues as wide as we can. #trees #urbanforestry #risk #riskmanagement #riskassessment
-
-
๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ฑ๐ผ ๐๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐? - ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ The Arboricultural Association's webinar by Russell Miller and James Chambers is now up on their YouTube channel https://lnkd.in/e_BrnZSU I'm going to make 2 posts about the webinar because it contains 2 presentations covering different subjects, but with some overlap. Having 2 posts will make it easier for anyone coming to the posts later, to make sense of any comments. ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ This is ๐ ๐ข๐ช๐จ๐ฉ ๐จ๐๐ if you make decisions about ๐๐ญ๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ ๐ค๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฎ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ง๐๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ค๐ข ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐๐จ ๐๐๐ก๐ก๐๐ฃ๐. From 38.50 James Chambers looks at the good, the bad, and ugly of sonic tomography. I've been interested in the application and interpretation of sonic tomography since it first appeared. I've seen plenty of good, bad, and ugly tomography. I'm also pretty comfortable with how it works and its limitations. Yet, I learned a lot watching James go through the hard-learned lessons he's accumulated from years of applied tomography. James' presentation includes many case studies that show where tomography goes horribly wrong and important trees are unnecessarily felled. #trees #urbanforestry #risk #riskmanagement #riskassessment
Webinar: Why do we lose so many trees (With Russell Miller and James Chambers)
https://www.youtube.com/
-
๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ฑ๐ผ ๐๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐? - ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ญ The Arboricultural Association's webinar by Russell Miller and James Chambers is now up on their YouTube channel https://lnkd.in/e_BrnZSU I'm going to make 2 posts about the webinar because it contains 2 presentations covering different subjects, but with some overlap. Having 2 posts will make it easier for anyone coming to the posts later, to make sense of any comments. ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ญ Russell Miller gets a lot off his chest in the first part. It's a cathartic and broad-brushed look at tree risk management decision making and how it threatens trees. Russell's got a background in law. It was heartening to see someone who has legal experience express their exasperation about the UK's ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ต ๐ ๐ช๐ถ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น and ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฒ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐บ๐ฝ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น cases. ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ต ๐ ๐ช๐ถ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น The fallout from Cavanagh, with its Appeal status, and how the weight of that might convert a '๐ฃ๐ข๐ฅ' Judgment '๐ค๐ข๐ด๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ข๐ธ' into '๐ค๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ญ๐ข๐ธ' was of particular concern to him. In our opinion, Cavanagh was a transparent case of '๐๐ฐ๐ถ๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ช๐ค๐ฆ', because of some obvious flaws in the expert witness evidence. We've written about Cavanagh on our News page here. https://lnkd.in/erU6QvyM This summary piece contains a link to a much longer LinkedIn article about it. The article goes into the concerns Russell raises in more detail. It also looks back to the flawed Poll Judgment (2006), which triggered the formation of the National Tree Safety Group. ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฒ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐บ๐ฝ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น That a claim was even made in the Hoyle case is particularly concerning for all Arborists and Duty Holders. Here, a Cherry tree failed and tragically killed David Hoyle. This is a Cherry tree no Arborist would take a second look at. https://lnkd.in/e_FiXveK Russell looks at some key elements of the case, and also explores the unintended fallout and consequences when these kinds of events make it to court. #trees #urbanforestry #risk #riskmanagement #riskassessment
Webinar: Why do we lose so many trees (With Russell Miller and James Chambers)
https://www.youtube.com/
-
This is a great graphic. You could substitute the '๐๐ฏ๐ด๐ฆ๐ค๐ต ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ต๐ฃ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ', or '๐๐ฆ๐ง๐ฐ๐ญ๐ช๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ' captions, with '๐๐ณ๐ฃ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ช๐ด๐ต + ๐ค๐ฉ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ด๐ข๐ธ.' Where did it come from? I can't find the origin with Google image search.
Botanist || Plant researcher๐ฟ๐๐บ || Dendrophile || Dendrochronologist ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ณ
#Science_of_Tree_ring_study๐ฒ๐๐ #Tree_rings_as_a_record_of #environmental_events Trees react to their environment, and this reaction is reflected in their growth rings. One example of this is the information the width of tree rings gives us about climate effects. In addition to climate, tree growth may be impacted by insect attacks, fire, rockfalls, wind, avalanches or game browsing (i.e., damage caused by wildlife feeding on tree shoots). Exposure to increased light, for example, when a neighboring tree dies, may also lead to increased ring growth
-
-
For those of you in New Zealand and Australia. Now your summer holidays are coming to and end. A reminder about these opportunities to upgrade your approach to how you go about the whole tree risk thing. https://lnkd.in/gguDvBTv
Here are the Validator training dates for Feb/Mar in New Zealand and Australia https://lnkd.in/gguDvBTv As you'll see from the training calendar link, we're pretty busy on this tour with Basic Validator training for Tauranga, Hamilton, Perth, and Wanneroo Councils. https://lnkd.in/dGYFasUy If you've got staff who spend a lot of time outside. Adopting a Tree Risk-Benefit Management Strategy. And having these staff trained as Basic Validators are your greatest tree risk management assets. #trees #urbanforestry #risk #riskmanagement #riskassessment
-
-
Sorry to hear about this. It's one reason we never use the 'Safe' word. Ever. https://lnkd.in/ebPHt9qA Validators are covered by either their client customising and adopting one of VALID's Tree Risk-Benefit Management Strategies. Or by using their own Validator version. https://lnkd.in/dWVK34U In relation to your situation here, the most important paragraph in the Strategies has the summary headline. ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐น ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ I've attached the paragraph that appears in the Government Agency version of the Strategy. The Validator version is a bit shorter, but says the same thing. You're welcome to use this is if it helps.
A very serious concern... I have been asked recently with regards to a late mature Beech "You reported at the meeting that as you have examined the trees and deemed them safe , and should they fall and cause damage or worse kill or injure someone, you have indemnity insurance to cover the situation. Can you confirm this to be the case as we are all concerned" The issue being, is a late mature Beech safe? The below shows (not the tree in question) such of which a major structure failed during Storm Arwen as a result of decay which would have been difficult to identify. And now a further limb has just failed across the access road in the recent storms showing decay activity at the point of union but not within the extent of the failed limb. So what about the remaining structure and can you state that a massive Beech is a safe structure? The only external evidence was bark delamination to the base of the stem at elevation. Of course if you applied for the removal of such a tree the local LPA would certainly reject such an application. Thus we have a paradox. If any colleagues can provide advice from their experience it would be much appreciated.
-
-
There's been an update to ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐/๐ฅ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐ป'๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ. We got feedback about the ruler example in para 6. Some were reading ๐ง๐ข๐ค๐ฆ-๐ฐ๐ฏ and ๐ด๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ-๐ฐ๐ฏ as the direction of the load, rather than the orientation of the ruler. Which means it wasn't written well enough. This is now fixed in v9.1, with a substantial rewrite of para 6. It includes a better explanation of what the ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ถ๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ญ ๐ข๐น๐ช๐ด is. You can download the pdf file here. https://lnkd.in/edRsB-V4 There's also some additional commentary to explain why t/R = 0.3. Or any t/R ratio, for that matter. Doesn't work as a guide, or a starting point. Why a t/R ratio is a ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐ด. #trees #urbanforestry #risk #riskmanagement #riskassessment
-
-
๐ช๐ต๐ ๐/๐ฅ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐ป'๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ To help stop unnecessary tree felling or damaging crown reduction tree work to your most important trees. We've updated and much improved our explanation of why t/R ratios don't work. This link takes you to the News page of our website, where you can download the pdf. We've also got more images to explain what's going on in that post. https://lnkd.in/edRsB-V4 ๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ, ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐๐ต ๐๐ผ๐๐ Explains why you can't make a credible decision about Likelihood of Failure, or the risk, based on a residual wall thickness from sonic tomography or micro-drills. You're welcome to use 'Why t/R ratios don't work' to question tree felling or crown reductions when sonic tomography or micro-drill readouts are used to justify them. Similarly, this will help you question media posts showing photos of the stumps from felled trees, which are decayed or hollow, to justify the work. Sonic tomography and micro-drills can be a really useful kit. But, even when they're used well (see below), they're only telling you a small part of the Likelihood of Failure story. #trees #urbanforestry #risk #riskmanagement #riskassessment
-
-
Here are the Validator training dates for Feb/Mar in New Zealand and Australia https://lnkd.in/gguDvBTv As you'll see from the training calendar link, we're pretty busy on this tour with Basic Validator training for Tauranga, Hamilton, Perth, and Wanneroo Councils. https://lnkd.in/dGYFasUy If you've got staff who spend a lot of time outside. Adopting a Tree Risk-Benefit Management Strategy. And having these staff trained as Basic Validators are your greatest tree risk management assets. #trees #urbanforestry #risk #riskmanagement #riskassessment
-
Senior Tree Consultant- Treecology. Covering lower North Island and upper South Island including Taupo, Wellington, Palmerston North, Nelson and Christchurch. 021 0263 9129.
3yPresumably the risk of being injured or killed by a tree or trees is reduced if the trees one has passed have been inspected by an arborist, and any parts at risk of failure have been remediated to reduce that risk to an acceptable level. Therefore in say the UK where trees along roads and footpaths are more frequently inspected by an arborist as compared to another country which may have zero or very low numbers of tree inspections, we could expect the injury rate from trees falling onto people to be higher (taking into account numbers of trips, number of trees, species, and weather, etc)?